Justin Elliott Would Not Win The Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest (Weeks 7-14)
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Carl Spackler Dumb and Dumber Gambling Justin Elliott Las Vegas NFL Rafi SuperContestGuess who’s back? It’s that moron/degenerative gambler who last said:
“I’ve got the hot hand right now. And with Biff Tannen as my witness, I will win at least 3 games this week. If I don’t, I’ll make like a tree, and get the heck out of here…butthead.”
Yea that’s what I said after Week 5 — after going 4-1 each of the previous two weeks.
Well guess what my arrogance got me? A one-way ticket to butthead city/goose-eggville/an-untrained-monkey-flipping-a-coin-could-predict-NFL-games-better-than-you-town.
I didn’t see it coming and got totally pummeled…like this:
My picks for Week 6:
(0-5)
BAL -4 (vs DAL) → L
NE -4 (@ SEA) → L
SD -1.5 (vs DEN) → L
ARI -5 (vs BUF) → L
IND +3 (@ NYJ) → L
San Diego completely tanking in the second half of that Monday night game against Denver was the proverbial nail in the coffin, or as Rafi puts it:
And so began my streak of either nailing picks or totally shitting the bed. Observe the roller coaster that has been my season:
Week 7 (4-0-1)
IND -1.5 (vs CLE) → W
GB -6 (@ STL) → W
PIT -1 (vs CIN) → W
WAS +6 (@ NYG) → W
ARI +7 (@ MIN) → T
Week 8 (1-4)
NYJ -1 (vs MIA) → L
NE -7 (@ STL) → W
WAS +4.5 (@ PIT) → L
ARI +7 (vs SF) → L
SD -3 (@ CLE) → L
Week 9 (4-1)
IND +1 (vs MIA) → W
BAL -4 (@ CLE) → W
NYG -3.5 (vs PIT) → L
DEN -4 (@ CIN) → W
TB +1 (@ OAK) → W
Week 10 (4-1)
BUF +14 (@ NE) → W
TEN +7 (@ MIA) → W
MIN +3 (vs DET) → W
TB -3 (vs SD) → W
ATL -1.5 (@ NO) → L
Week 11 (4-1)
GB -3.5 (@ DET) → W
IND +10 (@ NE) → L
SD +8 (@ DEN) → W
TB -1 (@ CAR) → W
CIN -3.5 (@ KC) → W
Week 12 (2-3)
GB +3 (@ NYG) → L
BAL -1 (@ SD) → W
IND -3 (vs BUF) → W
ATL 1.5 (@ TB) → L
PIT -1 (@ CLE) → L
Overall Record: 32-26-2
As you can see, until Week 12 it has basically been feast or famine with at least four wins or losses for eight straight weeks.
If I could only channel those good weeks I would have a chance at winning this thing. But the odds of that have to be like one in a million…
If my odds are good enough for Lloyd Christmas, they’re good enough for me. So onward with my Week 13 picks.
STL +7.5 (vs SF)
The Rams took the 49ers to OT in San Francisco and since then, the 49ers have been riddled with a QB controversy. St. Louis’ offense looked stellar on the road last week and that extra 0.5 in the spread makes me love this pick.
ARI +4.5 (@ NYJ)
The Jets are a total mess of a team in every way. Of course, Arizona is on a 7-game losing streak so I shouldn’t be celebrating them either. I am a big fan of Ryan Lindley’s, though, and I’m looking for him to protect the ball this week to keep this game tight enough for AZ to win.
BUF -6 (vs JAX)
Once again I’m picking against a horrible team rather than for a great one. I can attest to the fact that it’s f*%king cold in the northeast right now and I see that having a negative effect on the resurgent Chad Henne (too early to call?) and the MJD-less Jags.
MIA +9 (vs NE)
The Pats ruined my survivor pool in Week 2 with a home loss the the aforementioned Cardinals. I see this as another one of those “should-be-a-cake-walk” games that NE will be caught on its heels for. Miami has kept all but two games within nine points this year and I like them to do that against New England.
HOU -6 (@ TEN)
The two teams to beat the Dolphins by more than nine points this year? The Texans and the Titans. One of these teams is very good, the other is not. I have no other explanation or justification for this pick…whatever, go Houston!
As it stands, the leader of the SuperContest is 40-19-1 so I’m 7.5 games behind. Is it too much ground to make up? Are the worst of my weeks behind me?
Well if Carl Spackler is right…
…then I think I’ll keep playing.
Justin Elliott is a co-founder of Hire Me Grantland.
Send in your picks or tweet them @HireMeGrantland and see how you stack up against the football Nostradamus-es of the world.
